Andrew Doud 0:08

Okay everyone, it's Thursday. I'm Andrew Doud. Time for a Happening in the Hamptons podcast, our weekly breakdown of the Hamptons market, new listings, and events on the East End. We are sponsored today by New York Title Abstract, the Hamptons leading title insurance firm. Visit NewYorkTitle.com. Joining us as always, Steve Glick, Dave Rattiner. Today, my better half, Mrs. Sarah Doud, and Melissa Cohen with William Revis Mortgage. She will give us a breakdown of where we are as far as the mortgage rates are and where she expects them to go. But let's get started with Sarah. How are you? Thanks for coming back on.

Sarah Doud 0:41

So happy to be here. And it's it's an exciting time of year. We got rentals, we got exclusives, a lot going on.

Andrew Doud 0:47

Lot going on. What we've been talking about the last several months has been a lack of inventory. You have three, four exclusives now. Three of those are our waterfront, which is awesome. And when you are talking about buying in the Hamptons, right, that's what everybody wants. So what do you got for what do you got to offer for?

Sarah Doud 1:03

I feel like I always gravitate towards the water. If you're in the Hamptons, I think that's just been my advice from the beginning is you know, get as close to it as you can for for holding great values and always going up. Um but hot off the press is a new waterfront that is 30 East Rampasture in Hampton Bays. It is this iconic little original waterfront beach house. It's just a one-bedroom house, but you literally feel like you're floating on the water. You're you have endless vista views, um, a really prestigious corner of Hampton Bays that you would want to be in. Um, and just looking straight out over the water, then you see Dune Road and then the Atlantic Ocean. So pretty cool. It's like being on a house. It's it's vintage Hamptons, but all redone inside. It's very special. You don't see a lot of these around.

Andrew Doud 1:49

This is, I think, the perfect house for somebody that wants easy weekend access, very low maintenance because you're you're basically buying the house on the water. And then if you want to rent it, you can make a couple extra bucks. But it's just an easy one.

Sarah Doud 2:03

Come out, use it, relax, have your own waterfront, you know, basically your own private hotel.

Dave Rattiner 2:07

And use Sour to handle the rental.

Sarah Doud 2:10

Right, yeah.

Andrew Doud 2:10

She yeah, exactly.

Sarah Doud 2:12

A little bit of a habit doing that, yep.

Andrew Doud 2:14

Um right. I should say these are exclusive sale listings because you got a bunch of.

Sarah Doud 2:18

Everybody who buys wants to rent. Right.

Andrew Doud 2:20

That seems to be a trick. Um, the other one, I call this the gateway to the Hamptons. This is not in a spot that you would typically associate with the Hamptons, but I think it's an excellent entry point for somebody.

Sarah Doud 2:33

Even growing up out here, when you say the word Riverhead, I never quite appreciated this corner of North Riverhead where you have these amazing farms, vineyards, private golf courses, public golf courses. It's this surprising corner that really I've fallen in love with in the last year, getting to know it a little bit better. And so there's a condo up there that's a freestanding condo. So it really feels like a house. It's turnkey, it's $5.75.

Dave Rattiner 3:02

Wow.

Sarah Doud 3:02

Own part of the waterfront. Um, it's pretty special. And for that price point to be a short drive to the Hamptons, and like we said, just have this gateway entry Hamptons style property.

Steve Glick 3:14

Is this like a year around a year around?

Sarah Doud 3:17

It's rentable.

Steve Glick 3:18

And the water's a lot different. This isn't your typical bay or ocean. This is the Long Island Sound. Right.

Sarah Doud 3:23

And you have these kind of bluff views that are very similar to Montauk. Um, so you you just have you feel like you're on top of the world.

Andrew Doud 3:29

Yeah, it's water access where you can walk down this really pretty boardwalk, go down the staircase, down the bluff.

Sarah Doud 3:34

But again, to be in a waterfront community and have ownership, part ownership of waterfront at $575. Yeah.

Dave Rattiner 3:40

Wow. What's the like maintenance or something?

Sarah Doud 3:44

You know, the really low case, really casual HOA. It's $2,000 a year. Um the taxes because just for the maintenance, yeah. Wow. And the taxes are a little over $6,000. Um, but again, it's because you're in a waterfront community. Any kind of waterfront. And how's it turnkey? Turkey.

Steve Glick 4:01

So you really do it all. You're you're all on the east end, you know, north or south fork. You know, you really got it covered.

Sarah Doud 4:06

Yep. It's great.

Andrew Doud 4:07

And and lastly, three North Shore. I love this house. This is such a good thing.

Sarah Doud 4:11

So again, another corner of Hampton Bay is that I think when Hampton Bay's has already made phenomenal changes and turns in the last decade, but when it makes its final push and values really skyrocket, I I think this Red Creek neighborhood is one that people are gonna say, I'm really happy I bought there. Um, this one's just wonderful because you have four bedrooms, a heated pool, you have the garage, and then right across from your driveway is your private beach access to two miles of just really serene beachfront.

Andrew Doud 4:43

The people that that's what's the address on this one?

Dave Rattiner 4:45

I'm already north shore. Oh, three north shore. Oh yeah, this one. This one's beautiful. This one has it all.

Andrew Doud 4:49

Yeah.

Sarah Doud 4:50

And when you do go to rent something on the back end, if if that's ever part of the formula, having the four bedrooms and the heated pool and the beach is what people are looking for.

Andrew Doud 4:57

So that house has a lot of you can you can move in tomorrow and be good. There's a lot of room for improvement if you want to. It's I think it's solid investment.

Sarah Doud 5:06

It's nice to have it ready to go, but also see potential if you ever wanted to do more work.

Andrew Doud 5:10

And the people that own it already have canoes and stuff there. So like maybe, maybe you can enroll it into sale price. I don't know. Stour's ready. Everything's for sale.

Dave Rattiner 5:18

This is a good testament to your marketing ability because the second I saw this house, I knew exactly what it was. And the whole reason I know exactly what it was is because I've seen on your Instagram profile so many times touring it, and then you made this really cool video of how close you are to the beach.

Sarah Doud 5:33

Videos are so important, they're such a useful tool. I think we saw that especially through COVID. Um, but it's just a game changer when you can kind of take people in.

Dave Rattiner 5:42

It's hard though to get people to go on camera. Like you're you guys are camera people, you guys are comfortable on camera, but it's amazing how hard it is for some people to put their themselves on camera.

Sarah Doud 5:53

We we think it's a useful tool, so another life helps us sell sell houses.

Andrew Doud 5:58

The the previous life of TV reporters. Um so you know, Sarah, you mentioned too that um, you know, the you have like what, two thousand, two dozen rentals, something like that?

Sarah Doud 6:10

Yeah, two thousand would be crazy.

Andrew Doud 6:13

These are a little bit all over the place. I know, you know, yesterday you were dealing with some folks in East Hampton, some in Hampton Bay's, like kind of all over the place, Southampton, West Hampton Beach. You got the great one on the highway.

Sarah Doud 6:22

Um there's a lot of rentals because again, usually when I sell a house, part of that equation is can I rent it in some capacity? So it becomes, you know, just something that we continue to work on after we close it. And what's interesting this year is that I'm really seeing a shift in what we used to do is like Memorial Data Labor Day. That was the kind of the only option for people out here when we did rentals. And now I'm seeing a bit of a need for July through Labor Day. So this June month becomes a bit of a, if it's included in the in the big chunk, Memorial Data Labor Day, I'll take it and we'll use it and we'll be happy. But really, people are kind of hyper focused on that July through Labor Day. Um, so that's where all the money is, that's where a lot of the value is. Yeah, and that's really where people seem to be.

Steve Glick 7:05

And are are people looking now to lock in those rentals? Are you busy with the rental season now?

Sarah Doud 7:09

Yeah.

Steve Glick 7:09

So would you say this is the season to rent? Like is this the rental season for this isn't rental?

Sarah Doud 7:13

It's always the rental season to me. I mean, it sometimes all my rentals are done by now. Um so it was a little bit slower in the fall. And put them up in the fall, and it was a little bit slower. I think people were waiting to see what the economy was doing. Are they gonna buy? Are the rates gonna come down? Are they gonna rent again? And they were kind of in a pause. But now it's go time and people are making moves and locking in their summer fun.

Andrew Doud 7:34

So fantastic. So um, pool or no pool in your rental.

Sarah Doud 7:39

If you can get a pool, definitely do a pool. Yeah, yeah, because the pool is usually number one. Even if you're waterfront, even if you're waterfront, you you're fighting against your competition, is maybe a really well-done four-bedroom house with a pool, as much as we all love it.

Dave Rattiner 7:54

It really creates a magical scene. Like, if especially if you have kids, there's if you have a pool, there's always a way to entertain. You know, it's like it's like immediate, it's like, okay, let's go to the pool. It's just like such an easy thing. Where if you don't, you have to pack up and go and leave.

Sarah Doud 8:10

And a lot of people, it's a drive to get here. So once they're here, they just want to stay put and enjoy and have a have a great time. So pool, I think, is a if you can have it, have it.

Andrew Doud 8:19

Have it. All right. So how about the numbers, Steve? What are we looking at as far as what last week brought us?

Steve Glick 8:24

All right. Um, as you recall, last week was a little bit slower than normal. Um, but this week is you know a little bit busier than last week, but still not nearly where we want to be for the year so far. Um, there were only 11 listings that went into contract. That's all of the Hamptons from West Hampton to Montauk. Last year there were 14, which a decrease of 21%, and the year prior was 51 with a decrease of 78%. The breakdown of those 11 transactions, there was one between 5 and 10, 4 between 3 and 5 million, 3 between 2 and 3 million, and 3 between 1 and 2 million. The dollar volume this past week was 34 million. Last year, the dollar volume was 43 million. That's a decrease of 21%. In 2022, the dollar volume was 202 million in one week. So that's a decrease of 83% from two years ago. 15 new listings coming onto the market. So this is what we're seeing every single week. More of these more listings are coming onto the market. This increases the inventory by four listings in the breakdown of those 15 new little new listings. There were three between 10 and 20 million, one between five and ten, uh, three between three and five, two between two and three, five between one and two, and one under a million. So certainly a lot of new listings coming onto the market, keeping the inventory going up. Um, but we're just paying close attention to the listings going into contract. Um something that we're looking forward to as we're coming off, you know, January in the next two weeks. February is coming around. We got some holiday breaks there. Um, and the spring is is coming. I'm excited for the spring season. I'm so far away. It's it's it's on the horizon once you get through February.

Dave Rattiner 9:59

Once you get through February, but the March is the worst because March is freezing. Um every year I expect March to be not so bad.

Andrew Doud 10:07

When I was in the South, it was like March was like you got through February in North Carolina. Yeah. It was like, oh, March, everything's blooming, it's nice. Yeah.

Dave Rattiner 10:15

No, it's not the case here.

Sarah Doud 10:17

I thought, oh, I'm having a spring baby. And then as the months were going on, I realized no March is definitely not spring. March is more happening.

Dave Rattiner 10:24

March is just like, it's we're almost there. We're almost there. Yeah.

Andrew Doud 10:28

Um so Melissa has been patiently waiting her turn to weigh in, and we appreciate that. And thanks again for coming on. Um, you always have some really great insight as far as what the what the mortgage rates are going to be doing. And here we are in in the new year. So, what are you seeing? What has happened, and you know, what's the the advice for people who are maybe on the fence as far as buying a house?

Sarah Doud 10:55

Well, let's take it with the top view first, and that is that 2024 is going to be the year where mortgage rates start to come down, or not start, but continue to go down. In December at their meeting, the Fed basically pivoted from being totally hawkish to a more dovish tone. And in their adoption, they predicted that there would be three rate cuts in 2024, four or more rate cuts in 2025, and then potentially another rate cut in 2026. Um the bond market rallied tremendously off of that data. Um we had what we call the pivot party, and mortgage rates dropped by a whole percentage point at the end of the year into the very beginning of this year. Those lower rates have fueled actually some stronger economic data. So January's been a little bit of the hangover month in the sense that the market is getting too hot up with itself. In December, uh, the futures were expecting a 70% chance that the first rate would be in March of this year. Um, those odds are now down to about 45% because of the stronger data that we've seen. But the expectations are that mortgage rates will continue to come down, and that the economic data that is even more robust than expected is going to start to moderate, and then we'll give the Fed the opportunity to first announce that they have included this rate hiking cycle, and we'll see a nice month downward on mortgage rates when that happens, and then when the Fed actually enacted their first rate, which I expect to be at some point, hopefully in early summer, I'm guessing would probably be the good starting point that we will see mortgage rates decline again in the nice month, and then with the expectation that once the Fed has started to rate that they will continue to do so, and that mortgage rates will continue to decline through the balance of the year. People ask me well, why would I buy now? Shouldn't I wait until mortgage rates have dropped? And I think the most important thing we need to remember is that when interest rates drop significantly, real estate prices go up. And then people should understand that if they buy today, they will always have the ability to refinance in the next year or two when rates are significantly lower. Because the expectation is that the Fed is gonna cut rates by up to perhaps as much as 3% over the course of the next two years. So that means anyone who's buying today or anyone who bought before in 2023 is gonna have the opportunity to refinance. And Melissa, too, it seems like there were stacks of people of applicants kind of waiting on the sidelines, hoping to jump in when things started moving in their favor. Um, so I can't help but think there's gonna be a bit of a frenzy if people wait and then all everyone jumps in at the same time. That's correct. And also since we still have you know somewhat limited inventory, that will help drive prices up more quickly.

Dave Rattiner 14:08

It's actually unbelievably good advice. That's why we have her. I never I've never heard an economist kind of such as yourself give out advice where I didn't feel that it was kind of like a give and take kind of advice. But I really think your advice is amazing, where you say if you buy now, you can refinance later. And if you buy now with the rates high, you get the lower price. But if you wait for prices to come down, you're gonna pay at a higher pipe price. So you're kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't, if you do that situation.

Sarah Doud 14:44

Right. I mean, think about it. If you're paying five, six hundred dollars more a month for a mortgage payment, but you're gonna have to pay fifty hundred thousand or more for that house in six or eight months, do the math. It's simple.

Andrew Doud 14:56

And that's counterintuitive.

Dave Rattiner 14:57

It's totally counterintuitive.

Sarah Doud 14:59

And then if you get the house, because at that point, you're talking about multiple offers and you know, hoping you're the one to win it.

Steve Glick 15:05

It's a frenzy. I mean it's all a psychological game. You know, it's hard to like wrap your head around that, you know, paying that high interest rate, but you really have to trust your agent, trust your advisors that you're working with, because they're gonna give you the same advice and believe it. It's it's we've seen the cycles through all the time, and um, it's what you it's what you gotta do.

Sarah Doud 15:26

This is about buyer education, kind of telling buyers that the time for waiting is kind of over. Like you need to get in the game and you know, take Melissa's advice.

Dave Rattiner 15:37

Well, you can talk yourself into waiting for 30 years. Right. I know people like that.

Steve Glick 15:42

Dangerous game to play. We are we are suggesting it's like you know, you're trying to time the market, but in you in that scenario, right, you say, well, hold on, you know, prices are gonna go up because the rates are coming down. But guess what? More inventory will also come onto the market. So now if you look at your competition, you're looking at, okay, I'm competing with maybe you know, three or four listings, but once those rates come down, more listings will come on because you can get maybe more higher prices. Now you're competing with 10 or 15 listings. So it's just all a balance. And you know, when the moment is that you want to sell your home, price it for that time of the market. Don't try to like time it right. You know, yeah, it's all you're always gonna be playing that game and it's never gonna work out. And when you find the house that you want to purchase, purchase that house. You can always, you know, work where Melissa Cohen, refinance it, you know, get a different rate as these rates come down.

Sarah Doud 16:33

So and also remember that we know we have options today for buyers where we can sort of make them feel better about the rate markets. You know, the average closing time is 60 days. Most of the products that I sell to my clients these days, I always make sure that they have a float-down option, meaning that they can lock into the array at the time of application to protect themselves on the upside in case something happens. But just prior to closing, if the rates are lower, then it can take advantage of the lower rate.

Steve Glick 17:03

How long is that how long is that float down before 30 days or sixty days?

Sarah Doud 17:07

No, the float down happens. So let's say you lock into a rate today at six and a half, and in two months when you're ready to close, you know, the economic data is often and the rate is down to six percent. So just before your closing, the bank will float your rate down to the six percent. So you'll close with the six percent and not the six and a half percent. And there's one more, and that is that we have some banks that offer what they call a post-closing rate modification, meaning that the bank will readjust their rate again as opposed to closing without having to go through the refinancing process.

Steve Glick 17:42

You can't lose why.

Andrew Doud 17:45

This is honestly why.

Sarah Doud 17:46

When, and I know Sarah tells clients this all the time when somebody's like, Hey, I want to buy a house, she's like, you need to first first step, first step to a mortgage worker are a trusted source that I go to always. I mean, they they are my go-to. Um, and obviously looking for a house and buying a house is fun, but the first step is always knowing what you can afford. So you're not falling in love with you know the diamond and then having to to walk down.

Dave Rattiner 18:11

Melissa, what's like the stated goal of the Fed right now? Is it's it's to combat inflation because it does it does seem like prices have increased, you know. I I was at the grocery store the other day and asparagus was nine dollars, a bundle of a bundle of asparagus. That was the first time I was like shocked. I was like, wow, like nine dollars for a vegetable. Like I was like, that's that's impressive.

Sarah Doud 18:35

That's crazy. So the Fed's goal, which has been their goal ever since they had their first rate hike, is to bring the rate of inflation down to two percent. Now, bringing the rate of inflation down to two percent, you know, inflation is different in different parts of our economy. Um, food prices, I agree, are still very expensive. But it takes time. I don't think we're really seeing prices start to drop in terms of other things that are absolutely softening, but the Fed still has a long way to go to get back down to that two percent. Um they were. I mean, remember that when the Fed started cutting rates almost two years ago, that the rate of inflation was like touching up at nine percent. You know, now it's somewhere, depending on who you believe and what you read, it's somewhere probably in the low to mid-threes, but it's still not two percent.

Dave Rattiner 19:28

Do they have that like power to do that? Like how how long does it take? Because it seems like rates have been high now for quite quite some time.

Sarah Doud 19:37

Well, historically it takes anywhere from six to twelve months for each rate hike to make its way into the economy. So we're still not yet a year away from the last rate hike. But we've started to see the cumulative effect of it, and there are signs, you know, all of this credit card stress, which is remember that our economy is two-thirds consumer driven. And when the consumer starts to feel the pinch, that's when things will actually really start to slow down. You know, I think we've run out of our pandemic savings and you know, people have a lot of debt on hand. I think was the number that I saw. So, you know, there are signs that the consumer is weakening, and that will help to bring the rate of inflation down. If people keep spending, that's gonna keep inflation at least at a retail level, you know, it'll continue to remain high.

Andrew Doud 20:33

Yeah, Melissa, that's really great insight. Uh far more helpful than the price of asparagus at the grocery store. But nonetheless, you know, whatever, whatever helps. Um, Dave, you are the expert on what's happening though.

Dave Rattiner 20:48

I don't know about that. I don't know if I'm not sure.

Andrew Doud 20:49

What are the cool things going on?

Dave Rattiner 20:52

Uh well this is cool. Well, why don't you talk about CPI then?

Andrew Doud 20:55

All right, so yeah, so when Sarah and I were talking yesterday about what we were gonna talk about today, I said, you know, Dave always likes to give a shout out to a restaurant. And Sarah's birthday was Saturday.

Sarah Doud 21:08

We we've been doing like a birthday month. I feel like it's just, you know, it's going on and on now.

Andrew Doud 21:12

So we went to CPI, Canoe Place Inn, Hampton Bay's, which was for the longest time just like falling into the ground. And then somebody bought it. Beautifully redone, complete renovation, restaurant, brought it back to its former glory.

Sarah Doud 21:25

Fireplace. It's really nice off season, just like great place. And the fireplace is original, so they kept a lot of the old, I believe it, I don't we gotta get the exact quote on it, but it's like one of the oldest inns in America. Wow.

Dave Rattiner 21:38

It's like the Gurneys of Hampton Bay, yes, it's the gurneys of Bay.

Sarah Doud 21:41

They even have a spot there. Um But but it but we go there, nice, nice night out. And then we also went ice skating in Southampton.

Andrew Doud 21:48

Right, yeah, which is another longer ring. Oh, it's the best. That was the first time I was on kids too. It was great for kids. First time I was on ice skates in like fifteen.

Sarah Doud 21:57

Nobody nobody fell down. Everyone survived. I felt great, man.

Dave Rattiner 22:00

Honestly, yeah. But I I feel like the icy air like invigorates you. I was ready to go. Yeah, yeah. I feel like it's a good thing. But then we get the same one, like cold plunges.

Sarah Doud 22:07

But back in the day, we used to out here ice skate on just the ponds that would freeze in the town. And then you I got into this warm ice skating bubble, and I thought to myself, I don't think I want to go back to the old, the old way of doing it. We're in this like heated space. That was a good really enjoyable. Yeah. Hot cocoa right there.

Andrew Doud 22:24

That was awesome. Uh so that's that would be our our pick on your okay. And then yeah, and a thing to do. I mean, like, look, it's winter, it's January, almost February. Yeah. Go ice skating.

Dave Rattiner 22:34

I agree. Right. So what else we got? Um, so something else that's come up is at the American Hotel, they're having this Jazz Supper Club to benefit the Hamptons Jazz Fest. That's cool.

Sarah Doud 22:46

Nice.

Dave Rattiner 22:46

So that should be very nice. That is this weekend they have a full menu. Course one is lobster bis, course two is watercress and endive salad, course three is paella, free chicken.

Sarah Doud 23:01

I would assume, right?

Dave Rattiner 23:02

Um I guess. I mean it's all just it's all it's all the support this Jazz Fest, which I'm not really that familiar with. Have you ever heard of that?

Andrew Doud 23:11

No, but honestly, that sounds pretty cool.

Dave Rattiner 23:13

Yeah, so you know, why not? Jazz is nice.

Andrew Doud 23:16

I've never been to the American Hotel.

Sarah Doud 23:17

It's great. Similar, similar vibe, very cozy.

Dave Rattiner 23:20

It's very romantic. You want to go to the American Hotel? It's very old-fashioned.

Sarah Doud 23:24

Yeah, nice.

Dave Rattiner 23:25

Very old-fashioned. Um, yeah, I love the American Hotel. That's a pretty nice place. Anyway, you want more information, you can figure it out on Hamptons.com or you can email Gary at hamptonsjazzfest.org and he will give you all the details. All right. He's a great guy, that guy, Gary. Um, and then you got Tom Wardle is playing live music at Wolfra Estate Vineyard. So that's this Saturday from 4 to 8 p.m. Um and he's like a guitarist slash rock slash kind of countryish singer. Um and he'll be performing his monthly resident residency at the tasting rooms at Wolfort Estate in Sagaponics. So go there go there from 4 to 8 p.m. And that's like probably my one of my favorite go-to winter spots. And then if you want to get breakfast in the morning, I strongly I just went there this morning, and this place, Armin and Judy, has a bakery in the back. It's right down here. Right up the road. They have a huge bakery in the back. Really? Who knows? Huge. And um, you can get fresh French. Is that like a frame?

Sarah Doud 24:38

How did you find it? The cuisine.

Dave Rattiner 24:40

It was like random. I think I was gonna like, I I don't I pulled in there, I think, to like see if the restaurant was open.

Sarah Doud 24:48

Is it the iHeart Baguette You?

Dave Rattiner 24:50

Yeah, it's that place, but it's in the back.

Sarah Doud 24:52

Okay.

Dave Rattiner 24:53

So I pulled in there, and then I was like, is there like a bakery back here? And then there was like this French guy like baking away. He's like, Disney movie. And I was like, holy crap. So now we're really excited about it. You know what I mean? That's cool. So you go in there, you pay, you know, it's seven by, you know, it's like Carissa's, it's like it's like a Carissa level type of place where it's just everything's really fresh, everything's brand new. But it's so good. That's awesome. Yeah. So go there for breakfast.

Andrew Doud 25:24

This was a good one this week. Thanks for sharing. Good, you know, I guess in January, yeah.

Dave Rattiner 25:28

Yeah, for January, I guess.

Sarah Doud 25:29

Sure.

Andrew Doud 25:30

Um all right, let's wrap it up. Sarah, anything else you want to add before we just want to thank Melissa and her team.

Sarah Doud 25:35

I like I said, they they had great advice two months ago about things maybe changing, and I wanted to have them back because I think their expertise is always crucial and really great to follow and a big part of the real estate process. So appreciate you being here. Thank you so much, Sarah. We love working with you.

Andrew Doud 25:53

Good insight from all. Okay, thanks everybody for listening. Have a great weekend. I'm Andrew Doud, and that is what's happening in the Hamptons.