Andrew Doud 0:07

Alright, good Thursday afternoon, everyone. I'm Andrew Dell with Saunders and Associates, and this is the Happening in the Hamptons Podcast, our weekly breakdown of the Hamptons market, new listings, and events on the East End. The Happening in the Hamptons podcast is sponsored by New York Title Abstract, the Hamptons leading title insurance firm. Visit New Yorktitle.com or titleinsurance.com. This week we are joined by Steve Glick, Dave Retiner, Andrew Saunders, founder and president of Saunders and Associates, and Vincent Jorcasitas, who is one of our top producing agents here at the firm. Andrew, I want to start with you. Obviously, this was a record-breaking year as far as sales. Can you give us a sense of what's happening in 2020, what happened this past year, and where you see the market going?

SPEAKER_00 0:48

Sure, great to be with you guys. Good to see you as always. As we all know, 2020 was an extraordinary year in Hampton's real estate. The numbers, the transaction, dollar volume transactions in 2020, we did 7.2 billion against a comp of 4.2 billion in 2019. That was up 72%, which is an extraordinary number. Medium prices were up 35%. Medium prices in 2020 were$1.3 million against a comp in 2019 of$964,000. And number of sale transactions, unit sales across all product classes, residential, land, commercial, was up 38%, 3,124 units sold against a comp of 2,270 units sold. So by all metrics, 2020 was really an anomaly. But our sense is it's going to continue, and here's why. The prior week it shrunk 2.1%, and the week prior to that, the inventory shrunk 1.6% for 5.1% over the course of three weeks. And that's in the backdrop of prior weeks, before that, every week it's down three-quarters of a point, a point, one and a quarter percent. In short, the inventory is shrinking dramatically, prices are rising, and the market is running away. And this is really important guidance for our agents to convey this data to our buyers. I mean, at the end of the day, our job is to list and to sell properties and to manage orderly transactions. And we certainly have circumspect, thoughtful buyers who we're working with who will say, you know, this market is moving so quickly, I'm just going to wait for it to take a pause so I can find an opening to buy at a more opportunistic, you know, moment. And, you know, our advice is counter to that is like, look, this market is moving so fast right now, and there are a number of signs would suggest it really is going to continue for for some period of time. That houses which today are priced at a million seven or a million eight, we believe in a few months could be two one or two two or two three. And the best advice, in our view, for a buyer who plans on being in the house for you know ten years and and wants to enjoy it with his family is that he should be decisive. That's the best advice for these buyers now because we're just observing that so many of these deals are selling at ask or above ask, and those buyers who try to market time it or to uh negotiate it are losing.

Andrew Doud 3:56

There's we've talked at length on podcasts over the last couple weeks about how COVID and the pandemic has sort of shifted the dynamic of how people live and work, so many people now working from home and and looking for homes that have great office space so that they can continue to work from their home, from their new office. So, Andrew, I'm curious, what do you think will happen once everyone's vaccinated? Will we go back to what was effectively normal before the pandemic, or do you see things continuing uh as a trend that they are?

SPEAKER_00 4:25

Well, that's really the ultimate question, and my view is that it's not going to change. Uh, and here's why. I mean, look, in essence, I really believe that this is what's going on now is a reflection of this new paradigm that's emerged in connection with the live-work relationship that has defined um society for really for generations. You know, it was typical. You'd get up, you get on the train, you'd commute, you drive into the city or points beyond, whatever, uh, to get to get to work. And the underpinnings of that, uh, of those protocols are are really changing. And I think that explains you know why these housing markets are uh so heated up right now. Um just over the course of the past week, there's been some important data that really underscores all of that. Uh over the course of the past week, existing home sales for the month of January in our country um were released. The home sales in January in the United States increased 24 percent. Seventy percent of the homes sold in January were on the market less than one month. Now I'm not talking about the Hamptons. This is the whole United States. This is the whole United States.

Dave Rattiner 5:35

And so how can that be? Because the economy, you know, I mean the economy's down a little bit overall. You hear people having problems. Why are people buying buying houses? That's right.

SPEAKER_00 5:43

It's it's quite incongruous, right? Normally you would think that a strong housing market would be would move in lockstep with with a with a powerful economy. But we're we're seeing the counter to that, which is so many people in our country have really gotten crushed by COVID. People are really hurting out there. We're sort of in a bubble here in the Hamptons. Um, but it doesn't make sense really at first glance. How is it that the national housing market is on fire when so many people are um you know are really hurting, have lost their jobs or losing money. And I think the answer in part is because you know people can now work remotely. Uh there's this significant migration out of cities to surrounding suburbs and point and points beyond, precisely because companies are adopting these new protocols that allow people uh to you know to work remotely. You don't have to travel into the city uh to work any longer. And of course, you know, we all know about Microsoft and Twitter and Facebook adopting those protocols. Yelp just announced this past week that you know you could work at home forever. Dropbox and many, many others have announced that they are embracing these remote uh you know working protocols. The other important data point that really supports all this is what's happening in this whole flex office market. Um we notice that WeWork is cutting rents and selling buildings because workers aren't going into the offices any longer. Notel, which is another um you know, flex office uh provider, uh filed for bankruptcy recently, and with declared assets of$10 billion. These are massive companies that made a bet on the continuing strength of these city office markets, uh, and that's all getting unwound and undermined by what's uh you know, by COVID. So if you put it all together, home sales up in a tough economy, companies continuing to endorse these work from home protocols, and office rents getting reduced, and office building owners selling those assets, it's all pointing to really an inflection point in a society, a new paradigm associated with how people live and work and and what that's gonna look like uh for you know for the future.

Dave Rattiner 7:59

So like COVID was the catalyst for people to start working from home, but you're saying these companies have like a financial incentive now to have their employees work from home. They're making money, it works for them. Why would that not continue? That's that's the world view in your view.

Andrew Doud 8:14

It's almost forced to shift.

Steve Glick 8:16

Yeah, business wasn't disrupted. They're able to use the technology from the Zooms, the video conferencing, and the employees, a lot of them prefer working from home, it sounds like, and it and it's been successful. If you look at the fourth quarter in the Hamptons market, you know, we're seeing the fourth quarter spike. You know, with with COVID, you know, the the vaccines coming out and and people, you know, the the it's getting lesser out there. The market has been up 87% in the Hamptons fourth quarter. So that's coming towards the end of the year, and it's been running the first quarter um in 2021.

Andrew Doud 8:49

Vince, you're uh obviously you're a busy guy. We we we call Vince the the hardest working broker in the Hamptons. Um you're coming off an incredible year, close to 200 million dollars in sales last year, and and this year, over$100 million sold and in contract already. I mean, that's they're huge, huge numbers. So um obviously you're very yeah, obviously you're a very busy guy, have been for a little while now. Um I'm curious because you're out here talking to people, you're you're selling homes, you're talking to homeowners, working with developers. So what are you seeing as far as the market's concerned, and where do you see it going?

SPEAKER_04 9:25

Well, it's super pumped up, obviously. Um I mean I think it goes back to 2020, January of 2020. We were we had 12 down quarters coming to that part of the uh of the year, and even prior to to um COVID coming, the the market was starting, we were gonna have an up quarter that quarter without this going on, and then and then it went, you know, then when it kind of went crazy. I mean there, you know, it's been for I think it feels like 14 months now, 15 months that it's just been strong. Lots of people, lot of lots of demand. The people that come out are serious buyers, they're not looking to kick tires, they're looking to buy a home out here, and and um that's sort of what I'm seeing.

Andrew Doud 10:04

You had a uh a listing that closed last year, 1400 Meadow Lane. Uh that was listed uh at$50 million, and and that closed. Uh but then you also represent properties that are anywhere from one to three million dollars. You're you're kind of all over the board as far as the the price of homes. So are you seeing that people are looking for homes in the two to three million dollar range? Are you seeing things that are 10 million up moving more than they have in the past? Uh both of those things.

SPEAKER_04 10:30

I think I think the sweet spot is the two to three million dollars. You know, what what if you look at the numbers, the under one million is probably the l is the least um movement on it. So I think it was up three percent. And then you look at the numbers above uh two million, though those are a lot higher, and that's because the you know million dollar um uh listing has been moved up to two million dollars. So it's up twenty-five to thirty percent. Um it seems like you know, those those particular properties um are just in more in demand, and it just, you know, a lot of times the the perception is, you know, I get people all the time calling me up, oh Vince, yeah, I don't know if you really want to take a listing of this uh uh statue, it's not, you know, it's beneath you. And I'm like, what are you talking about? I mean, it's you know, it's you know, the bulk of the business out here, if you're not as a broker um doing transactions between two and three million dollars, you're really not doing that many transactions because the bulk of the business, 85% of the listings that trade every week are below uh, you know, probably between uh lower than three million dollars. That's my take on it.

Andrew Doud 11:33

Uh well actually that leads us nicely into the numbers, which we always cover uh every week. Andrew gave us a great rundown of uh, you know, kind of where we were last year and and looking ahead. But Steve, I want to talk specifically about this past week. Uh it seems like since we started this podcast, every week it's been numbers up. It's been incredible.

Steve Glick 11:51

I mean, just hearing from Vince, you know, he has what 13 properties sold, 20 in contract this year, over a hundred million in one single agent. So he obviously is working hard out there and the market is running and it's on fire. I mean, this past week there were 52 listings that went into contract from West Hampton to Montauk. Compared to the same week last year, there were 26 listings that went into contract, which is normal for a January-February time period. So that is a year-over-year increase of 100%. The breakdown of those 52 transactions are four between 10 and 20. So four properties between 20, uh, 10 and 20 million that went into contract this past week. That's a that's a big number. You know, two between six and eight, nine between four and six, eighteen between two and four, and nineteen under two million. And then again, we parent we're paying very close attention to the number of listings coming onto the market. Andrew alluded to that. The market um over the past month is the inventory is down um around five percent. And we're seeing that again this week with 26 new listings coming onto the market, um, leaves a deficit of 26 listings. Um the quick breakdown of those 26 listings are one between 10 and 20, two between six and eight, eight between four and six, nine between two and four, three between one and two, and three under one million. So obviously the inventory is uh is low, but there's still some great values out there. Vince, you represent I think over fifty listings uh on the market, and two in particular you wanted to highlight that are some great deals that are still out there available for sale. The first is 375 a brick kiln. This property features two houses, right?

SPEAKER_04 13:29

It's a no, this is this is a great house. Um, has me kind of scratching my head of uh why it hasn't sold yet. It's on 5.2 acres. It has two homes, it has a published uh Geller house that's uh a three-bedroom, two-bath house um with a pool, gunite pool has a pool house, um all the amenities someone would need in a in a in a small house. And then it has a uh feral construction that was a custom build for the owner that is uh a 6,000 square foot house, uh seven bedrooms, six baths, two half baths, uh a 20 by 50 gunite pool, tennis court. Um I mean it has it all. It's unbelievable value.

Steve Glick 14:09

It has all the amenities, and you get two houses, you know. I mean, like you can't go wrong with that. And another one you represent, of course, you represent a lot of new construction, but one listing that you have um that was built in 2014 is 281 Narrow Lane. This is another great house, right?

SPEAKER_04 14:24

Yeah, uh, you know, it's on it's a flag lot off a narrow lane. It's um it's priced at 4295 down from uh 4895 when I took the listing. Uh it's 1.8 acres. It has the ability to have a tennis court on the property. Um the property in front of it was just I just recently put into contract where the owner is going to preserve it so it won't be built on. It's uh three bedrooms, two baths upstairs. The master has urban archaeology, uh fin, you know, uh hardware throughout the house with the kitchen and all the bathrooms, um, five bedrooms, five and a half bass, uh seven thousand square feet in total, two-car garage, you know, just real good value for it, showing this a lot of time a lot a lot, getting a lot of action on it.

Dave Rattiner 15:10

7,000 square feet. It's beautiful, man.

Steve Glick 15:12

Yeah, it sounds like great properties. And uh look, Vince Rep, like I said, Vince has over 50 properties ranging from under a million to over 40 million. Vince is certainly the hardest working broker in the Hampton department.

Andrew Doud 15:24

The guy he opens the office, he closes it down, the guy is always always hustling. So um, listen, Dave, I want to shift over to you, but here's the thing. So it's like 43 degrees today, which you don't realize how warm 43 degrees is until you're driving out to the office and it's been below freezing for like two months. Uh so it kind of got me excited. It felt like you know the snow's melting, maybe spring. Spring is on the way.

Steve Glick 15:44

I'm looking for spring right now.

Andrew Doud 15:46

And uh so I'm curious if it if it stays 43 degrees or warmer this weekend, Dave, what are you doing?

Dave Rattiner 15:51

Yeah, for happening in the Hamptons. Well, before we get into Happening in the Hamptons, Vince, I'm I'm so curious about your buyers because that that narrative that uh Andrew was just saying is so interesting that people are just gonna permanently zoom to work. Are you finding that the buyers that are you're coming in are you?

SPEAKER_04 16:08

You know, I was I did actually I showed up like four or five houses yesterday, and I was in there at there was out of out of the five houses I showed, three of them were on Zoom calls. Wow. Yeah. So, you know, it just it just feels like, you know, I've been I've been out here for 35 years, and um 20 of them I've been a broker. And we just you know, I used to drive south of the highway in the wintertime and there was never a light on. You didn't no one was out here. You know, and now you drive around and everybody's out here. It's busy. I mean, there's traffic jams, there's just it's you know, there's a lot of people out here now. Summer year round. So it's it's totally changed, you know. Um I play a lot of tennis. You try to book a court at one of the, you know, one of the indoor facilities out here, you can't even get a court, you know. On a Tuesday, you can't get a court, you know. Yeah, so it's it's it's changed.

Dave Rattiner 16:51

It's definitely uh So COVID, so COVID was like the catalyst to this whole Zoom, this whole work from home zoom thing. And the idea is is that that's just gonna continue permanently. And where else would you want to work, you know, from home than from a Yeah?

SPEAKER_04 17:06

I mean, I think I think I think I think the uh the the owners of these properties you know want to be close enough to New York where they could plug back in and go in for a meeting or something like that, but they're you know spending four days out here and you know four or five days out here, maybe one or two days in the city.

Dave Rattiner 17:22

Interesting. All right, yeah. So this weekend I'm gonna tell you what's happening in the Hamptons. Uh it's happening in the Hamptons time. So this weekend, uh the best things to do this weekend is going to be the Field of Dreams walking tour at the Parish Art Museum. That's taking place this Friday, February 26th at 3 p.m. Um and it's gonna be socially distance, it's in person, socially distanced though, led by Scott Blue Dorn, who's gonna give tours of his work at the uh which is called Bonnock Blind, and that's at the Parish Art Museum, which is a beautiful museum. Uh the second thing is uh just a feel-good event that I think everyone should do. My dog was just spayed at this uh place, the Southampton Animal Hospital. Uh they do great work, um, and they're they're they're for everybody. It's an affordable, it's an it's an affordable hospital. Um they're gonna have a spaghetti fun re a spaghetti. That's cute. Spaghetti. Spaghetti. Fundraiser for uh the shelter, and it's gonna be uh this weekend, the 27th and the 28th, from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. And each ticket will get you a meal, a spaghetti and meatballs meal at Scato's in Hampton Bay's. Have you ever been to Scato's? No, yeah. Scato's is deadly, man. That is the best food. Oh my god, this food is so good. Um, and then you're also gonna get uh entered into a raffle as well. And then the third thing is the Promised Land Nature Walk. I'm sorry, I'm doing another nature walk. The nature walks this Saturday, February 27th. It's led by Paul King III of the South Fork Natural History Museum, and this is a kid-friendly nature walk. So if you got a kid, bring them along, go on the nature walk through Nappe. How do you beat that on a Saturday?

Andrew Doud 19:07

Doesn't that sound great? That sounds great. It's like the spring warm-up. You start with a nature walk, then you go to like the beach, then you get your when are you putting your boat in the water? When is that happening?

Dave Rattiner 19:15

Oh man, uh probably in another month. Okay, so we always go in around. It's coming.

Steve Glick 19:19

It's coming. I I see the sun out there. The snow is gonna be melting. Hopefully, that's the end of the snow.

Andrew Doud 19:23

I gotta tell you, I'm I I do I hope that's the end. It was a good winter. It was cool to get some snow, but like, yeah, I'm I'm ready for it. It was a real winner this week.

SPEAKER_00 19:30

Yeah, it was a real winner. Interestingly, when it was when the weather was horrible, it did not impact business negatively. People were with such enthusiasm to transact, people were coming out, right, Vince? Yeah, 100%.

SPEAKER_04 19:41

Usually when you got a snowstorm and they're not coming out, and you know, trekking around in the snow, the slush, the rain, they're uh you know, they're moving forward.

Andrew Doud 19:48

Send them the property video, send them a zoom call.

Dave Rattiner 19:52

I mean, have you ever need to be out here? Have you guys ever I mean you guys are have so much intelligence just in the history of what you guys do. I mean, have you ever seen the mania uh in the Hamptons? Have you ever seen this kind of mania? I mean, has it has it ever been this in intense? I haven't I haven't seen it. Never. No, not not even close. Even during prior to 2007 and things like that. Not even close.

Andrew Doud 20:13

It almost feels like if there was more inventory, there'd be even more sales, but it's like at some point.

SPEAKER_00 20:19

Well, there's significant frustration among buyers and consequently our agents because they can't identify um a property that's available that they want to buy.

Andrew Doud 20:27

Right. And I know we've talked to agents in weeks past that are saying, you know, people are saying, well, I'll just wait till the market goes back down. But to your point, yeah, exactly. What is back down?

SPEAKER_00 20:37

The categories are so picked over almost every category. And look, you hope that the Hamptons market operates as an efficient market. An efficient market is a market when there's an imbalance in the supply-demand equation, more inventory comes on the market at higher prices. And we're seeing that now. We're seeing uh, you know, um prices inflate and and new inventory start to come on, but it's not happening as quickly as we would like. There, there are buyers, as Vince said, you know, he he could sell you know 12 houses at$2 million if he if he had the inventory. It's just um actionable inventory just isn't there now. But I've observed this market for many, many years, and this market is an efficient market, and we will see more inventory come on the market at higher prices. And for those, you know, buyers who are decisive and you know educated about the market will recognize those opportunities as being opportunities and they'll transact.

Andrew Doud 21:28

And Vince, to that point, you deal with a lot of developers. I mean, you're you're kind of a developer's agent, so are you hearing from more developers, people interested to get out here to try to find either uh an investment opportunities as far as teardowns and and rebuilds or new plots of land to build on?

SPEAKER_04 21:43

Absolutely absolutely. So, you know, what's happened is that you know there was a buildup of inventory um with new construction that was on the market, and it's basically dissipated. There's no more, there's no there's there's no more on there. And what's happened now is that you have this whole slew of new inventory that's coming on the market. And for the first time, what I've seen, which i is kind of uh very different, is the um is the new construction that's being bought with plans. So in other words, they go there, they see the site, the hole hasn't been dug, I'll take it. Just like that. Just like that, I'll take it. So that's what's happening. And that, you know, that used to be, you know, it used to be a rarity. You know, every once in a while you would sell a house pre-construction when it's being framed or something like that, if you're lucky enough to have that happen. And now what's happening is, you know, if you have a good set of specs and plans and you have the you know the whole thing, it's I'll take it.

Andrew Doud 22:33

Is there an area at the Hamptons that you're seeing like an increase in in either development or sales that maybe had been sluggish in years past?

SPEAKER_04 22:41

You know, Sagaponic uh North, which, you know, um there's I just recently sold a a lot of lots uh in that location, uh like five or six lots in that location. There's a lot of new construction that's coming to um in in that location, um, which, you know, that that market's been on fire. I mean, if you take a look at that market, it's always I mean the the comps in that area are, you know, uh there was uh there was a house that was just sold on Merchant's Path that was uh so you know 1.6 or 8 acres, no tennis, uh for$6 million. So those numbers, you know, I mean if it's it's a it's astonishing when you look at the numbers north of the highway with some of the new construction, the prices that have sold, or sixes, sevens. You know, it used to be if you could, you know, uh a while back there used to be, you know, if you could sell a house for five million north of the highway, that was, you know, saying something. Now those those numbers are totally been broken. There's you know, all sorts of ten million dollar sales north of the highway now. Um so quite different than what it used to be even five years ago. The games changed.

SPEAKER_00 23:40

But the discussion of developers dovetails uh nicely into the mandate that exists for buyers if they want to be successful. Developers uh you know execute transactions, they do things that aren't obvious, uh, and they take some risk. And a successful buyer in today's market sort of has to embrace that strategy. Where you see a market that's increasing, you know, aggressively, should I pull the trigger? Do I believe in it? It kind of forces you to say, hey, am I willing to take a shot here, you know, given all the data that I'm seeing? And I think the answer is yes. Those those buyers who are decisive, like a successful developer, uh, will themselves be uh be successful.

Andrew Doud 24:22

And as we talked about with Drew Green last week, I mean, if you look at the long-term trend, you know, there might have been ups and downs, but as far as the Hamptons is concerned in the sales, it's always gone up.

Dave Rattiner 24:32

And you enjoy it, and you get to enjoy the home too. Right.

Andrew Doud 24:35

But you get to live in it. Um great, great insight. Thank you guys, everybody, for joining us. Andrew for being here, a lot of good stuff on the numbers and Vince, uh, a ton of experience, and you know, congrats on a great year last year and a great start to this year. To see all of our listings, of course, be sure to be sure to check out Saunders.com. And once again, the Happening in the Hamptons podcast is sponsored by New York Title Abstract, the Hamptons leading title insurance firm. Visit New YorkTitle.com or titleinsurance.com. Thank you all so much for listening. I'm Andrew Dowd, and that is what's happening in the Hamptons.