Andrew Doud 0:12

The podcast today is sponsored by Newark Title Abstract, the Hamptons Leading Title Insurance Firm. Visit NewerTutle.com or TitleInsurance.com. I hope everybody's having a good day. We are joined as always by Steve Glick and Dave Retiner. And today, Mr. Drew Green. Drew, thank you for being with us.

Drew Green 0:27

How are you? Good morning, Andrew and uh David and Steve. How are you? Good morning, Drew. What's going on, Drew?

Andrew Doud 0:32

So here we are. Summer's over. We're into what I think is the best month out here. September, fall, selling season. Pretty drastic from where we were, I guess, a year ago. And we talk about this a lot. But from your perspective, Drew, what are you seeing as far as the market is concerned right now and how it relates to the buying frenzy that was the last 12 months or so?

Drew Green 0:54

Sure, yeah, I touched on it a bit in my newsletter that I sent out to people. But the the market obviously has uh changed dramatically over the last year and a half. Uh when the pandemic first started, obviously we were all concerned about where the market and the world was going. I was concerned I was gonna have to, you know, go find other employment. But interestingly enough, it worked out beautifully for uh real estate brokers. Yeah. Um what happened was that uh obviously the demand for living out in the countryside uh you know obviously picked up, escalated not only here but nationwide. Um and uh the the inventory that we had, we were always sitting on give or take about 45 to 4,000 to 4500 uh properties listed. Uh and uh the inventory today, I believe, is at around what was it, 1,400?

Steve Glick 1:47

It's like we're a little bit over 1,500 listings currently on the market.

Drew Green 1:52

So what the prices obviously uh escalated because uh you know demand was quite high, and now prices remain high because inventory is quite low and demand is still high. Uh you know, I have a lot of buyers now in the very current uh atmosphere that are saying, oh geez, you know, the market is inflated, I don't know, maybe I'm gonna wait, let's see if the prices are gonna come down, this pandemic can't last forever. Uh, you know, I would tell them that I don't see that happening. And the reason being that, in I'm not an economist or anything, but the reason being if if everybody if anybody ever goes out to dinner now, they'll see that prices at the restaurants are give or take, about 25%, 30% more than they were uh a year and a half ago. And uh guess what? That's also reflected in real estate as well.

Dave Rattiner 2:40

So all assets, really.

Drew Green 2:42

All assets, everything is inflated now. Basically, once again, I'm not an economist, but it's my opinion that the uh the government basically decided to get out of this pandemic situation is they decided to turn on the printing presses and print a lot of money. And needless to say, over time, that is going to lead to inflation. So these prices that we're looking at now, you know, the house that was uh you know selling at a million dollars uh 18 months ago is now selling at a million three, but the value of that money of is about the same as it was 18 months ago at a million dollars. So so the these are inflated numbers. Uh not that they not that real estate is the only thing that's inflated, but once again, everything across the board is inflated, so your dollar isn't going as far as it did 18 months ago.

Andrew Doud 3:28

So you're saying that there's not going to be like a like a miraculous downturn where all of a sudden the affordability is gonna be there.

Dave Rattiner 3:34

A miraculous downturn. Well you look at the same thing. But you know, even when there was wouldn't you say, wouldn't you agree that even when there was a downturn during the uh crash in 2008, 2007? Well, even when that happened, I mean, you know, what it was still you could pick up deals, but you still expensive to buy out. Sure. No, no.

Steve Glick 3:55

There was value deals at that point. I'm looking for the value. You gotta look for the value on that deal. Right. But when you look at the inventory now, right? You look at the inventory, Drew, you said that there's you know 4,000 plus listings, you know, be pre-COVID. You know, this is 2000, you know, 19, I guess. And the current currently on the market, there's like called 1,500 listings. How many listings go sell a year, right? So you look at 2019, there were 22, roughly 2,200 sales in 2019. 2020, there were about 3,500 sales. The first half of 2021, there were 1,680 sales, right? So if you look at the inventory's 1500, we're in this projection, we're gonna run out of listings. You know, that's why the market is the pricing is so high, because the inventory is is historically low. It's not just low, it's historically low by by margins.

Dave Rattiner 4:50

Yeah, right.

unknown 4:51

Yeah.

Dave Rattiner 4:51

And that will bring the time to be a seller, for sure.

Steve Glick 4:54

It's a strong seller's market, and that's gonna drive, that's what's bringing the prices elevated up a little because of that.

Drew Green 5:01

It took it took a once we we had to get through all the you know old inventory that we had uh to start seeing prices inflating. Uh that didn't happen right off the bat. It took you know six to ten months for prices to start escalating. But now, once again, prices are baked in. These prices aren't going anywhere anytime in the foreseeable future.

Andrew Doud 5:25

Are there areas of the hands in that you're seeing more value now as a result of the last you know, twelve to eighteen months? In other words, like a certain area that that you know not not that you'd steer a buyer away from, but you're like, well, yeah, I mean, there's not a lot of value in that land, but now all of a sudden, because the inventory is so low, people are building in that particular area or uh a house in that particular area is worth more than it was or maybe ever would have been.

Dave Rattiner 5:51

Well, like all areas. Yeah. All areas now are are desirable.

Andrew Doud 5:55

I mean uh well, it used to be like when I I was always told like south of the highway was like the place to be, right? You know what I mean? Now new construction, it's like yeah, new construction. Well, north of the highway, yeah.

Steve Glick 6:05

Every everyone, every area is getting looked at now. Yeah, you know, second like even you know, areas that you would never think, like if you're going all the way up north in the springs, but those those are those are hard areas. You know, there's a lot of value there, there's a lot of opportunities, and people that are priced out of south of the highway are now looking to go north of the highway and look at look at areas and locations that they would never think is a place that they want to live. But they're building new construction, they're buying the land, and there's plenty of opportunities in those other areas now.

Dave Rattiner 6:32

And areas change all the time. Like when I was a kid, I remember Sag Harbor being like this really strange place. Like when I like it was like a strange place to go. If you were very bohemian, yeah. Yeah, it was like you you would you didn't like if you knew like if you if you knew someone in Sag Harbor, it was like kind of a strange thing. It was place for artists and writers. Yeah, it was like people that didn't have a lot of money. And I still to this day, I still can't believe that like you know the watch case actually is there. I mean, that building was falling down forever for like 30 years, so now it's like this luxury building. Like things change everywhere.

Andrew Doud 7:06

Which is so funny because every time I go to Sag Harbor, I'm like, how did nobody see the value in this? This place is awesome, like it's on the water, it's got this great downtown historic buildings, it's super cool.

Dave Rattiner 7:15

When I'm there now, I'm like, this is great. Like I go there all the time just to walk around. You know, and it's I have such a vivid memory though of being like 12, you know, whatever. And um, you know, my friend was in Sag Harbor, and I just thought it was strict. Like I was like, oh, Sag Harbor, that's a weird town.

Andrew Doud 7:32

So speaking, speaking of how things changed, Drew, you got kind of an interesting story about how you got into this business. Well, not so much how you got into it, but your first sale. Um and and I'll let you tell the story, obviously, but but what struck me is what the house that you helped a buyer get for the price and what its value is now.

Drew Green 7:50

Right, right, right. So so that goes back to uh to the point I uh frequently make to buyers is that uh long-term, I'm always a long-term uh investor or advisor on on with regards to investing, is is if you're into uh long-term investment, then the Hamptons real estate is always a good play. Uh so to elaborate on that, is my first sale was 1998. I was this was back before computers were even of any significance in uh in real estate agencies, let alone the internet and uh the listing services that we now use. Uh we did everything, we did everything via Rolodexes, believe it or not. Um so I was sitting in the office on a hot summer Sunday afternoon in July, and this was back when brokers used to go into the office for what we called ups. People would actually walk in off the street and say, I want to buy a home. Well, this happened on a on a hot Sunday afternoon around four o'clock, and even at that time. I really vividly remember. I remember very clearly, very clearly. Uh it it uh at that time of day and that time of the week is certainly not even a great time to be sitting in the office, but I was, and this gentleman walked in and uh he said he wanted to buy an oceanfront house. And of course I that got my attention and and uh you know took him out to look at some properties. And the first property I showed him ten months later, you know, went round and round, showed him a bunch of other properties over the course of those ten months, but ultimately came back to the first property I showed him. It was an oceanfront property uh which uh had oceanfront and then it also had frontage on Meacocks Bay as well. What another separate parcel, and it sold for an even $4 million, which today, in my opinion, that property is probably worth about $25 to maybe even 30 million.

Steve Glick 9:45

And you were hooked, man. You do that, you know, new into real estate, selling an oceanfront, that's it. Hooked, this is the career, and that's on that's an amazing story to be able to have that experience the first year.

Dave Rattiner 9:57

Like over like your comments on inflation, like like 25 years from now, will that same house be worth a hundred, you know, or fifty million? Or it's like it's so hard to wrap your head around it, but I mean I'll be interested.

Andrew Doud 10:09

Well, if you said something in 98, this is a $30 million property in 20 years, you'd be like, Wow, yeah, you know what I mean? Like they'd be like, it's it's it'd probably be in the world. A little bit of a lot of people. It'll be interesting to see.

Drew Green 10:20

Well, needless to say, these are numbers that are hard to fathom for anybody, but the reality is, you know, in over time, inflation is inflation, and it's it's uh a a little inflation is of course healthy for an economy. That's the idea. People that's like the candy bar was five cents. Right, right.

Andrew Doud 10:38

You used to be able to when I was born, you could buy a car for like anywhere between like two and four, maybe five thousand dollars. You know what I mean?

Dave Rattiner 10:44

Like you don't, it's weird, you don't notice it, you know.

Andrew Doud 10:47

Houses used to cost as much as a car does.

Steve Glick 10:49

But when you look back and when you look back and think about it, you're like, oh wow, you know. But it it comes in increments, like really small, but every every year it moves a little bit, you know.

Drew Green 10:58

It moves a little bit, then every once in a while, like as I said, I I I think I touched on it a bit ago. You know, real estate prices are give or take on average, up about 30% from what they were a year and a half ago.

Steve Glick 11:13

Yeah.

Drew Green 11:14

That's a big jump. That's huge.

Andrew Doud 11:16

One year. That is. Um, so what are we looking at as far as numbers, as far as sales this uh the last week there, Steve?

Steve Glick 11:22

This week there were 34 listings that went into contract compared to last year, 2020. They're at 80. So it's a decrease of 57%. But if you go back to 2019, there were 33 listings, so it increases a little bit by 3%. But keep in mind, this is the time, like I said, you know, July was stronger than June with in-contracts, August was stronger than July for in-contracts, and now we're rounding into September, and I'll have those numbers next week to see what we rounded out for the month of September. But it this is this is the strong month. September and October are a great selling season where you're gonna see a lot of listings go into contract, and that's that's normal. You know, that's what normally happens after the summer. Um, and then after and then November, December, and January, things do tend to slow down out here. Uh the breakdown of those 34 listings that went into contract this past week. There are two between 10 and 20 million, one between eight and ten million, one between six and eight million, three between four and six, ten between two and four, and seventeen under two million. New listings coming onto the market. Um, people must must have caught wind of what we were talking about today because there were 50 new listings that came onto the market, which is high. This is a high for the past that's interesting. I don't know. That's a high for the past year, yeah. I would say, you know. Um, so we'll see.

Drew Green 12:39

It could just be well that that I think is a reflection of historically we always have uh a number of properties come on the market immediately after Labor Day. Right. Owners that had rented their homes come back out, they list their home for sale, or you know, they've enjoyed they've enjoyed the summer.

Steve Glick 12:55

That's why we have Drew here to break it down. That's great. And we'll see next week. We'll see if that 50 continues or it drops down back to 20 plus. Um but that but with 50 coming onto the market, 34 coming off, that increases the inventory by um that increases the inventory by 16 listings. The breakdown of those 50 new listings there is one over 20, three between 10 and 20, one between eight and ten million, two between six and eight million, two between four and six million, fourteen between two and four million, and twenty-seven new listings came onto the market under two million dollars.

Andrew Doud 13:30

So there you have it. So happy in the Hamptons, Dave. Is it pumpkin picking season yet? I mean it's almost October.

Steve Glick 13:37

Finally.

Dave Rattiner 13:38

Well, today's we're actually in fall, right? Autumn?

Andrew Doud 13:41

Yeah.

Drew Green 13:42

Yesterday was first day of fall.

Dave Rattiner 13:43

Oh, what? Yeah, yeah. So of course, that's it. Get ready for my number one pick are the Hanks Pumpkin Town. Hanks is back. I feel bad saying Hanks Pumpkin Town, but Hanks is back. Um, everybody knows it. It's a gem in the Hamptons. You can do apple picking, pumpkin pick picking. You go down in there with your kids, you can shop, it's great. You gotta do it. Other farms in the area is the Fairview Farm at Meacocks, the Carwith farm stand in Watermill, then you have the milk pail, so you can get uh some donuts there, which is great. That's also in Watermill. And then you have the Seven Pond Orchard Farm in Watermill where you have the corn maze, which is cool. Um, so definitely do that. I'm actually just kind of noticing there's a lot of farms in Watermill. Right. Like family farms in Watermill. My um my second pick is Oktoberfest at Rowdy Hall. So this is running all week, uh, so it's from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. And then they just have a special menu, you know, with like the Bavarian pretzel with mustard, um, and then you can also have Bavarian beer uh and special cheese served with rye toast and radishes. So if you're into that, they're having specials at Rowdy Hall. And then my third and final pick is the 10th annual Sag Harbor American Music Festival that's also running all week uh in Sag Harbor at the Marine Park and Steinbeck Park. So you know, right there on the pier. Um and you know, Sag Harbor is an epicenter of art, music, and local creativity. Um and then this year they're gonna have bluegrass, gospel, old time music, Appalachian folk music, blues, Cajun, and Native American music, as well as jazz and rock and roll uh and popular music all day. So something for anybody. Yeah, so just head down there and you know enjoy the sunshine and enjoy the enjoy the town and enjoy the music.

Steve Glick 15:39

Also, East Hampton Village is celebrating their 100-year centennial celebration this weekend. Oh, and yeah, there's at Herrick Park on Saturday. There's gonna be a carnival, a fun-filled event for people of all ages, and I think things are going around all weekend, Saturday, sub Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in East Hampton Village. So certainly check it out. I think all that information is gonna be on the Hamptons. HappenThamptons.com. Perfect.

Andrew Doud 16:02

So, alright, quick uh quick tally, because this is always a talking point in the fall. Uh, pumpkin spice everything, yes or no?

Drew Green 16:10

Uh depends.

Andrew Doud 16:12

Okay.

Steve Glick 16:13

100% yes.

Andrew Doud 16:14

You're a yes guy.

Steve Glick 16:16

I didn't start yet, but it's the pumpkin spice latte, the pumpkin beer, pumpkin donuts, pumpkin donut, right? That's apple cider donuts of a good thing. But I have to wait. But is that really what pumpkin tastes like? I think I started part of it. It's the pumpkin pie. I'm pumpkin everything, man. Put me on. I had pumpkin pancakes. Those were pumpkin pancakes. Pumpkin pancakes, pumpkin spice pancakes.

Andrew Doud 16:41

I didn't try pumpkin pie for like 20 years. Like the first 20 years of my life. I never tried it, and then I was like, this one I've been missing. This is so good.

Steve Glick 16:48

Give pumpkin a try.

Andrew Doud 16:49

Um, all right, so there you go. There you have it. Uh, guys, thanks so much for listening. Drew's got some houses to sell, so we're gonna let him go. The Happening the Hamptons podcast is sponsored once again by NeuroTunnel Abstract The Hamptons leading to Title Insurance Firm. Visit NeurTuttle.com or titleinsurance.com. That's it. Have a great Thursday. I'm Andrew Dowd, and that is what's happening in the Hamptons.